Since the advent of the Internet, the popularity of fantasy sports has skyrocketed, and it is no surprise why. Mixing the excitement and unpredictability of sports betting with a game that involves keen analytical insight and planning, fantasy sports allow anyone to test their skills as a sports manager.

Potential fantasy managers have a slew of sports to choose from. Leagues exist for baseball, football, basketball, hockey, soccer, tennis and many other sports. Baseball is particularly popular because of the sheer volume of statistics available to analyze.

Josh Paley, a computer science and Algebra 1 teacher, excels at fantasy baseball. “Fantasy football is for the weak; the only good fantasy sports are the ones that threaten to wreck your career if you play too much, so really you shouldn’t.” Paley mused.

Regardless, he won the 2001 Diamond Challenge, a huge fantasy baseball tournament. Hosted by the CDM Fantasy Sports company, the tournament grand prize winnings totaled nearly $30,000.

Most people think that the guy who watches every single game, understands the ins and outs of every player’s strengths and weaknesses and meticulously manages his team wins. In reality, this is not enough. According to Paley, the players who win fantasy sports leagues do so through careful mathematical analysis.

To succeed at fantasy baseball, one must have an “intuitive feel for a branch of mathematics called linear programming,” Paley said. “You have to see players as having outputs and your job is to maximize those outputs with only so much funny money to spend.”

Senior David Light respects Paley’s ability. “He’s a fantasy baseball savant,” Light said. “I asked him a question about Yovani Gallardo, and he was the only one who pronounced his name really well: Ga-yardo” Of his own tactics, Light said, “I know a few tricks. If a player does well at the end of the season, he’s growing as a player.”

Light also looks at how many years a player has left in his contract. If a player has a break out season in the last year of a contract, it doesn’t necessarily forecast success for the future, because players often exceed expectations in contract years in an attempt to pad earnings for the future.

Paley attributes his success to a crude mathematical model he devised to select his team, but he also points out that success isn’t guaranteed. “An amazing fantasy player can have a terrible season because his players are injured, but in the long run, owners who know the numbers will do well eventually.” Paley said.